NFL Best Bets Week 15 Chiefs pounce Patriots Browns bash Bears Lions-Broncos engage in a duel
NFL Best Bets Week 15 Chiefs pounce Patriots Browns bash Bears Lions-Broncos engage in a duel
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The holiday season is in full swing, and so is the playoff push in the NFL. These are the days when the contenders start to kick it into overdrive, while the lost teams start sputtering and stalling out. It's a great time to be a bettor, especially if you've been regularly following our best moneyline, spread, over/under, and player prop bets. Every Friday, we unveil my favorite moneyline, spread, over/under, and player prop wagers for the upcoming weekend. We run the gauntlet and handpick the best value opportunities on and, then tell you exactly how and why you should attack the books to make some money. And through 14 weeks despite some bumps in the road during November we have made of money. Our best bets went 10-6 last week, pushing us to 29-19 since Week 12. That makes our season-long best bets record 131-101-1, good for a winning percentage of .565. Our goal is to get back to .600 by the end of the regular season, a lofty but attainable mark to set. Our objective: Consistency. We maintain that sports betting is a lot like Black Jack if you're knowledgeable, approach it the right way, and remain steadfast with your strategy, you're going to win more often than you'll lose. With the right mindset, proper level of research, and consistent preparedne s, we see sports betting as an investment, not a gamble and we're loving our return on investment through 14 weeks. ain't just a hobby, kids it's a second job that allows us to punch in while we're sitting on our couch. MORE WEEK 14 BETTING:|| We're hungry for more profits as we sprint towards Christmas and the NFL Playoffs. We still have Black Friday credit card bills to pay off, Christmas gifts to buy, and oil tanks to fill. So, let's carry over our momentum and head into the Week 15 main slate with another batch of NFL moneyline,spread, over/under, and player prop bets. Let's go! JUMP TO: | | | Chiefs (-8) at Patriots A lot of bettors will be backing the underdog Patriots in this one after Bill Belichick's squad stunned the Steelers in Pittsburgh on Thursday Night Football last week. However, let's not overestimate Bailey Zappe's ability against an underrated Kansas City D and let's not underestimate a hungry Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and the reigning-champion Chiefs. The Patriots moving from Mitchell Trubisky and the Steelers to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs is like Georgia playing Vanderbilt one week and then Alabama the next. Zappe was able to out-duel Trubisky and rally the Pats to a huge victory over an exasperated Steelers D, but don' Jordan Poyer Jersey t think Andy Reid's squad will be taking New England lightly on the road. If Kansas City doesn't watch out, the red-hot Broncos could take over the AFC West. The rumors have never swirled as much as they are right now in New England. Trusted Pats journalist Tom Curran recently revealed that Belichick and the Patriots have decided to part ways after this season ends. That's not a good way of preserving momentum after a big conference win this team could very well be dejected at best, apathetic at worst. Expect the Chiefs to get out to a big lead and never look back, while the Pats' tank gets back on track. SCORE PREDICTION: Chiefs 26, Patriots 16 Browns (-3) vs. Bears (-110) Cleveland has been one of our favorite squads to bet this season. When Myles Garrett and the Browns D has needed to step up and put the team on their shoulders, they have risen to the occasion. And now that veteran Joe Flacco has triumphantly emerged as the rest-of-season starter, we have confidence in this team's ability to get past a middle-of-the-pack opponent like Chicago. The Browns are 7-5-1 against the spread and 4-2 ATS as a favorite. Even better, they are 6-1 ATS as a home team and a perfect 4-0 ATS as a home favorite. Chicago, meanwhile, has gone 2-5 away from Soldier Field with its only road victories coming against Josh Dobbs and Sam Howell. Flacco has been vastly better and more efficient than either of those younger QBs, and Cleveland's defense is on a completely different stratosphere than Minnesota and Washington. Justin Fields can't run his way out of this one. Bet the Browns with confidence, and feel free to buy them down to -2.5 if you want the added insurance of a field goal cover. FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Browns 24, Bears 16 Other Week 15 spreads we like: Bengals -0.5 (1Q) vs. Vikings (+105); Dolphins -9.5 vs. Jets (-110); Rams -6.5 Jamie Gillan Jersey vs. Commanders (-110); Texans +3.5 at Titans (-110); Saints -5.5 vs. Giants (-110) Colts (-125) vs. Steelers On the surface, NFL fans outside of Pittsburgh probably think Mike Tomlin's Steelers have had a banner season. They're 7-6 and firmly in the AFC Wild Card hunt despite myriad injuries, most notably to their starting QB Kenny Pickett. They have the seventh-best scoring defense in the NFL and commit the fewest turnovers.However, most Pittsburgh fans know that this team is going nowhere fast, and their patience with average-to-mediocre play has started to wear thin. Many have called for Tomlin's job, citing Pittsburgh's inability to get past lame-duck opponents like the Bailey Zappe-led Patriots last Thursday night. Others just want some kind of organizational change, considering the Steelers have scored the fifth-fewest points and netted the sixth-fewest yards in the NFL. They also stink in the red zone, scoring touchdowns inside the opponents' 20-yard line just 42.9 percent of the time. One only NFL team has a worse red-zone TD rate. Indianapolis, meanwhile, has been an offensive revelation under Shane Steichen. Despite top rookie QB Anthony Richardson getting hurt earlier in the season, the Colts have a top-eight scoring offense, an efficient 23:9 pa sing TD-to-interception ratio, and the sixth-most rushing TDs in the NFL. In a season loaded with backup QBs taking over offenses, Gardner Minshew has arguably been the most steady and polished of them all. Indy's defense often leaves a lot to be desired, but not against below-average offenses. Sure, it's the fourth-worst scoring defense on paper, but that's mostly due to a small batch of wild games. Consider that the Colts have held the Texans, Ravens, Titans, Panthers, Patriots, and Buccaneers to 20 or fewer points, all the while averaging 26.5 points per home game. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, averages just 15.8 PPG on the road. Minshew, Zack Mo s, and Michael Pittman will lead Indy past the Steelers and one step closer to Tomlin's termination. FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Colts 23, Steelers 19 Other Week 15 moneylines we like: Eagles -150 (1H) at Seahawks; Ravens -170 at Jaguars Lions vs. Broncos: OVER 48 (-110) This Saturday night special has the potential to be one of the best games of the season, pitting Ru sell Wilson and a surging Broncos team against Jared Goff and the reeling but still capable Lions at Ford Field. Sean Payton has led Denver to victory in a whopping six of its past seven games after looking like a lost cause earlier this season, while Detroit has dropped divisional games to the Bears and Packers since Thanksgiving. The succe s both teams have enjoyed on the offensive side of the football is what gives us confidence in the OVER. They have combined to average 48.3 points per game on the season and a whopping 50.9 PPG since Week 8. Denver's offense has caught fire in the same span of time that Detroit's defense has fallen down the well (somebody call La sie!). The season-long trends favor this best bet, too. Denver's games have now gone OVER the projected total in eight of 13 weeks, while Detroit has seen the OVER hit in four of its six home games. We project this game at closer to 55-57 points, making this one of the safer over/under calls of Week 15. Look for Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and David Montgomery to show out in an offensive firefight over Wilson, Javonte Williams, and Courtland Sutton. FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Lions 31, Broncos 24 Other Week 15 over/unders we like: Dolphins vs. Jets: OVER 27 (-110); Rams vs. Commanders: OVER 50 (-110); Browns OVER 20.5 vs Bears (-115); Eagles OVER 25.5 at Seahawks (-110) Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions vs. Broncos OVER 53.5 rushing yards OVER 85.5 rushing + receiving yards This is our second straight week choosing Gibbs as one of our player prop locks. Dan Campbell and the Lions have clearly figured out by now that the rookie gives Detroit its best chance to succeed, as Gibbs finally out-snapped and out-carried David Montgomery. The snap count was the most glaring, with the rook seeing 41 offensive snaps compared to the vet's 23. Gibbs ended up with 79 all-purpose yards and a TD in a losing effort to the Bears. Newsflash in case you have been living under a rock the past 14 weeks: Denver sucks at stopping the run. No team has surrendered more rushing yards to RBs (124.7 per game), and only five teams have given up more than the Broncos' 40.5 opposing RB receiving yards per game. For the Lions to win games, theyestablish the run and get Gibbs involved in the pa sing game. This could be a get-right game for Campbell's squad, which desperately wants to get back to the momentum it felt earlier in the season. Go with Gibbs for the win! Frank Reich Jersey MORE SUPERDRAFT DFS & FANTASY PROPS: Puka Nacua, WR, Rams vs. Commanders OVER 68.5 receiving yards With C.J. Stroud and the majority of his pa s-catchers banged up, the Offensive Rookie of the Year race has suddenly become tight again. Nacua could easily reclaim his early-season momentum with a strong final month of play, especially if Houston continues down river without a paddle like it looked last week against the Jets. Washington has surrendered an NFL-high 198.5 receiving yards to wideouts this season, and since shipping out two of its pa s-rushers the Commanders have surrendered a whopping 296 pa sing yards per game over the past month. Look for Matthew Stafford to have the Rams' pa sing game gelling early and often in this one, with Nacua tightening the OROY race even more heading into Week 16. If you purchase a product or register for an account through one of the links on our site, we may receive compensation. Sporting News has editorial oversight for this content.
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